The odds of President Joe Biden serving another four-year term have continually lengthened since the commander-in-chief’s disconcerting debate performance on June 27. His chances have presumably only lengthened after numerous Democratic leaders called for the 81-year-old to step aside and allow another party name, perhaps Vice President Kamala Harris, to take on Donald Trump in November.
President Joe Biden disembarks Air Force One at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday, July 17, 2024, after returning from a campaign trip in Las Vegas where he tested positive for COVID-19. Many believe Biden will soon step aside from the 2024 race. (Image: AP)
Biden tested positive for COVID-19 this week while campaigning in Las Vegas. He cut his visit short to Southern Nevada to travel back to his vacation home in Rehoboth Beach to recover.
The president contracting the coronavirus came just days after the assassination attempt of Trump at his rally in Butler, Pa. Biden has veered out of the limelight. Still, his social media accounts remain lively, though many wonder who is posting the content. Trump meanwhile took the stage last night at the Republican National Convention where he officially became the party’s 2024 nominee.
As Biden headed east, a slew of reports surfaced that more powerful Democrats have privately asked the president to reconsider running. Notables who have reportedly asked Biden to withdraw include former President Barack Obama, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-New York), and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-California).
Bettors continue to reduce their liability on Biden winning on Nov. 5, which is subsequently propelling oddsmakers to lengthen their lines on the incumbent.
Biden Odds Lengthen
On political exchanges that facilitate the buying and selling of election outcomes, Biden’s stock price has tumbled from nearly 50 cents in late June to just 14 cents as of this afternoon. During that same time, Trump’s stock has climbed from 51 cents to nearly 70 cents, though his stock has since retracted to 64 cents.
Winning shares upon the closure of a market are redeemed at $1, minus platform commission fees.
Harris is seen by many as Biden’s successor should he bow out. Over the past month, the vice president’s shares of winning the 2024 presidential election have surged from just three cents to 29 cents.
Overseas sportsbooks where outright odds on elections are allowed have similarly adjusted their lines.
At William Hill, Trump is at -200, while Harris is at +300 and Biden is at +1000. A winning $100 bet on those odds respectively nets $50, $300, and $1,000.
Despite the political rumblings that Biden is preparing his exit strategy in consultation with his key advisors, the president’s campaign continues to maintain that he’s in it to win it.
The stakes have never been higher. The choice has never been more clear,” said Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon. “President Biden is more determined than ever to defeat Donald Trump.”
Trump delivered an emotional if not dramatic 93-minute speech Thursday night where he began by discussing the assassination attempt on his life.
“I’m not supposed to be here tonight,” Trump told the crowd. “The discord and division in our society must be healed. We must heal it quickly.”
Political pundits said when Trump stuck to the script, his message was one of unity with a softer tone.
I am running to be president for all of America, not half of America, because there is no victory in winning for half of America,” the 45th president declared.
But when Trump didn’t read the teleprompter, he reverted to his MAGA rallying calls, attacked his political rivals, and continued to allege that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
VP Odds
It appears if Biden does step aside, it’s Harris’ ticket, though delegates could choose someone else at next month’s Democratic National Convention.
As of now, betting favorites to serve as Harris’ running mate include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
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